Os perigos do referendo

O imbroglio britânico, buscando em plebiscito a resposta de tão grave questão, submetendo o futuro político econômico de uma nação à um mero SIM ou NÃO, bem demonstra quão inadequada e perigosa é esta formula simplista de consulta ao eleitorado. 

Como sequência à coluna intitulada Brexit deste blog, publicamos a seguir estimativas da Bloomberg, hoje divulgadas, sobre os efeitos esperados para a economia do Reino Unido:

" Very short term

• Sterling index depreciates by more than 10% since the referendum, to reach a multi-decade low against the US dollar

• Safe-haven assets including gold and gilts rally as investors turn risk off

• Bank of England increases liquidity-providing operations; expected to announce a 25-50bps rate cut and an extension of QE in Augus

Short to medium term

• Inflation set to rise faster as sterling depreciates – headline CPI to average 2.0% in 2017

• Investment to contract sharply as business face unusual levels of uncertainty

• Unemployment rate expected to move back to 6% by end of 2017

• UK fiscal targets likely to be relaxed significantly – announcement likely to be made in the government’s Autumn Statement in October

Longer term

• Annual GDP growth to drop from 2.3% in 2015 to 1.1% in 2016, and to contract by 0.4% in 2017

• UK economy to pursue its adjustment as UK and EU discussions relating to future relationship progress."